British Open Thoughts

Not that any predictions are easy, but visiting a course that we don't know that well while also trying to predict the weather, or which side of the draw a player will fall on makes these predictions more of a guess than any other major.

Watson, Norman and Price are your 3 winners at Turnberry over the years. All 3 are in the Hall of Fame so it would make sense that Tiger should win. Of course, that always makes sense and so I'll just set him aside this week and pick my other top 10 favorites.

· Steve Stricker - finished top 10 the last 2 years at this major and other than Tiger and Perry, the hottest U.S. player in the field (who has won)
· Retief Goosen - has been on a lot of leaderboards this year, both in the U.S. and in Europe. Hasn't always finished the deal but just the fact that he has been in the mix bodes well.
· Ernie Els - this is the only major I see Ernie ever possibly winning again. In some regards, I feel silly picking him to play well this week but this is the one event he has continued to play well in. He needs to keep Thursday's round no worse than 71 though. And some serious wind wouldn't hurt his chances either.
· Lee Westwood - game is finally coming around this year and well, he's on Steve's team, which is red hot. Paired with Tiger the 1st two rounds so needs to maintain focus on his own game.
· David Duval - I believe.
· Ross Fisher - was in the mix down to the wire at Bethpage. Could be distracted by his impending fatherhood but an up-and-comer
· Hunter Mahan - on fire and getting more comfortable in big spots
· Henrik Stenson - back door top 10 at the Players and showing better signs lately
· Davis Love III - DUE to compete in a major one more time. Played well at Turnberry once before.

U.S. Open 2009 - a.k.a. "#15"

I mean, let’s be real. Tiger Woods is the prohibitive favorite here at Bethpage. Before the season started he was the favorite, even coming off surgery. But a command performance at The Memorial where El Tigre hit all the fairways, came back from a 4-stroke deficit and hit his last 2 approach shots on the difficult 17th and 18th holes to a combined 10 feet REALLY solidified him as the MAN to beat this week.

Think back 9 months ago when Villegas had just won two events, Paddy had won the last 2 majors, VJ won a couple of events, Anthony Kim was a brash young winner who seemed poised to stare down Tiger and Sergio was seemingly in every event with a new putting stroke. “Tiger, there are guys ready to challenge you when you return!” Uh, yea right. Now, none of those guys have won since, Paddy and Sergio can’t even make a cut and Anthony Kim is “rededicating” himself the last couple of weeks.

Instead, this year has brought us two wins from Brian Gay and Zach Johnson, numerous Sunday collapses from Steve Stricker (still managed 1 win when Tim Clark himself collapsed), another series of head-scratching Sundays from Geoff Ogilvy despite adding 2 W’s. Big Henrik Stenson has missed 3 cuts since dominating on Sunday at the Players. Kenny Perry, the hottest player on the planet the last 18 months, has struggled since gagging at the Masters. And now Philly Mick deals with competitive rust and the emotional baggage of discovering and handling Amy’s illness.

Oh, don’t forget that Bethpage Black has added another 200 yards and it’s supposed to be extremely soggy this week. The fairways will be even wider for the big hitters and the shorter hitters will now have 200 yards + in on some par 4’s. The rough may be a little lower from what I hear, but it will wet meaning strength will win out.

It all adds up to this…TIGER WOODS by 6.

Afraid so folks. #15…3 to go. It’s as simple as that.

• Here is the rest of my top 10 – no real surprises here by the way.

1. Angel Cabrera – I like Angel to make an admirable run at 2 in a row before finally giving in as Tiger assumes a 3-shot lead by late Saturday
2. Retief Goosen – ready to compete for major titles again. Wet conditions also favor a sometimes erratic Retief from the tee.
3. Ian Poulter – finishes in top 20 in almost all the big events now
4. Paul Casey – long hitter, feeling confident – can his short game keep him in the mix? Has never had a top 5 major finish
5. Geoff Ogilvy – playing well enough to make the top 10 despite inconsistencies
6. Camilo Villegas – ready to start competing for the biggest titles
7. Jim Furyk – "let's get serious", this course is too long for him even though he is playing great again
8. Phil Mickelson – talent alone will get him a top 10; what if….?
9. Steve Stricker – similar to Furyk, playing great, but conditions will not help him
   
   Dark Horse: Graeme McDowell – 63 on Sunday at Memphis. Has finished in the top 20 in a few majors recently and has confidence from last year’s Ryder Cup performance.
   
   ‘Super’ Dark Horse: Bubba Watson – oddly enough, plays his best golf on the toughest courses. Obviously long - was in the mix at Oakmont for a while.

Open Pairings

Always a good time trying to figure out what they've done here. 

Ian Poulter, Justin Leonard, Robert Allenby
* Three guys who have won a lot less than you would think.

Vijay Singh, Jeev Milkha Singh, K.J. Choi
* Quietest.  Threesome.  Ever.

Sergio Garcia, Camilo Villegas, Adam Scott
* Heartthrobs without trophies.

Rocco Mediate, Kenny Perry, Tom Lehman
* Old Farts (too easy)

Henrik Stenson, Robert Karlsson, Steve Stricker
* Two Scandinavians and an American who looks like one.

Geoff Ogilvy, Jim Furyk, Paul Casey
* The "Flying Under the Radar" pairing.  All three can readily win this.

Luke Donald, Trevor Immelman, Tim Clark
* Another "Guys who win less than they should."

Kevin Sutherland, Dudley Hart, Ken Duke
* PGA TOUR Pros that nobody wants to follow

Anthony Kim, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson
* The Next Wave

Retief Goosen, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson
* Vanquished by Tiger

...any others?

Quail Hollow Commentary

[A fellow fantasy leaguer suggested that maybe Tiger is "slipping" due to family. My retort and other thoughts on the latest PGA Tour offering.]

I don't buy the family thing for Tiger. I think it's a combination of rust, learning his swing again on 2 good legs and a course that he has played only every other year. He didn't putt very well, drive very well with the driver or really control his distances on the irons again. He wasted strokes (#7,#10,#14) like he never usually does (at the Masters too). Also, I think it's fair to note that I think one of Tiger's weaknesses right now is playing in the wind. He always says when he's behind that he hopes the weather gets bad, but I can't recall a time when the weather was poor and it benefited Tiger, although I am open to seeing if you guys can remember. I mean, you COULD SAY he is as "beatable as ever" TM right now.

You gotta love Sean O'Hair as one of young guys that will challenge Tiger over the next few years. I mean, he didn't make a putt over 10 feet in the tournament and still won. It almost seems impossible, doesn't it? Plus, O'Hair is a nice guy that us Americans can root for. He really seems to be coming into his own as they say.

Other thoughts:

• At no point Sunday was I concerned that Bubba Watson would win.
• I thought Lucas Glover would shoot 75 or worse Sunday. Perhaps a step forward finally.
• Zach Johnson's final round start (par, triple, bogey) was shocking.
• Phil made another great run Sunday but it sputtered again down the stretch.
• There were some shocking collapses before the cut for some name players to MC, notably Harrington, Cabrera and Romero.

Players is up next where I like: Perry, Stricker and Phil.

Gary Player

http://www.pgatour.com/2009/r/04/06/ap.player/index.html

In this day and age of everything Tiger..and the comparisons to Nicklaus…the new media sometimes forgets about Gary Player. Heck, even guys our age do. The link above is a great article on Player and his years at Augusta.

Masters Thoughts

Well, it's Masters week and the azaleas are in bloom and have been for a couple of weeks at my house (see above picture) despite temperatures in the 40's Tuesday this week here in Atlanta. The weather looks to be promising for the tournament however, with temperatures in the lower 70's and only moderate chances for T-storms on Friday. We should get our Sunday finish and everyone agrees we hope that the Masters' brass sets the course up for some fireworks.

I know the media have been piling on of late on the Masters course changes, but the last 2 years the weather has played a major factor in the scores and excitement, namely wind and cold. We should be able to avoid the cold and the new leadership (Billy Payne in for Hootie Johnson) realizes the need to soften the set-up to generate more Sunday roars, especially on the two "second nine" par 5's.

Obviously, the hope here is that Phil and Tiger can duel it out on the back nine, especially with their form of late. Despite Phil's MC at Houston, he has shown as recently as this spring that he can win a week after playing poorly. And of course, Tiger put a W up on the board at his last start, coming from behind to beat Sean O'Hair on the 18th hole at Arnie's place.

So where does that leave us? I mean...seriously, how can you not pick Tiger? I say that almost every year, but this year, it just seems to set up for him to add to his legend, a la Hogan winning the U.S. Open after his car accident. Tiger inches closer to Jack with his 15th major and with Bethpage on deck next, you have to consider him a heavy favorite there also.

Top 10 contenders:

• Mickelson - no matter what happens, Phil usually at least top 10's it
• Goosen - even when he has been playing poorly the last few years, this was the one place he still had a modicum of success
• Watney - played well here last year and has taken it to another level
• Paul Casey - I think he truly believes now. Has faltered on Sunday consistently here the last few years but has finished a couple of tournaments off in '09
• Zach Johnson - defended admirably last year and playing better now. Plays his own game and won't change his strategy.
• Stenson - showed some mettle in Houston on Sunday - ready to contend in the majors
• Ogilvy - a sexy pick to win, has won big events, but has too many bad holes that could hurt him
• Westwood - last year came close to the Mediate/Woods playoff at Torrey. Not sure about his putting but his ball striking has improved from years past
• Harrington - by sheer will, he will top 10, but I don't like his ball-striking consistency to-date this year. Plus, there have been only 2 players to win 3 majors in a row in the modern age - named Woods and Hogan. Gulp.
  

Pretenders:

• [Copy and paste each year] Adam Scott - never seen on TV on Sundays at majors
• Sergio - "where hath thou gone, Sergio?"
• Anthony Kim - please - 1st trip to Augusta and has not dedicated himself to practice this year.
• McIlroy - 1st trip - could make the cut due to talent but it's early everyone
• Ernie Els - Ernie hasn't been in real close contention in awhile and still can't put 4 rounds together. Would love to see it though.
• Kenny Perry - sure, he's focused on the majors (he says) - at least he's playing in them this year. Can't win here with his putting.
• VJ - back and knee issues still
• Freddie - have you seen Freddie's finishes this year at Riveria and Houston? And his putting stroke from 4-6 feet? Simply put, No.
• Steve Stricker - have you seen HIS finishes this year? 3 leads => 3 meltdowns on the back nine
• Greg Norman - MC; only thing going for him is low expectations
• Villegas - hasn't played here enough yet; not sure he is patient enough either
• Immelman - I thought he was ready to take on a larger stage - almost won at Memphis since then and that is it.

Can't wait until coverage on Thursday!

Masters Preview

My friend and co-blogger has been all up in my grill, trying to get me to post something.  Well he has succeeded, which is more than I can say for his fantasy team this year.  And yet I digress. 

 

Here are some quick thoughts on the Masters:

1) My God, I hope they let the players play this year.  Move some tees up, make some pins accessible, and try to restore some excitement to the tournament.  At least give us something better than Johnson d. Sabbatini/Goosen or Immelman d. Snedeker. 

 

I always will remember the day I got to play Oakmont.  One of the first things our host showed us inside the clubhouse was the winners of the major championships the club hosted.  I remember how he expressed relief that Ernie Els won a second US Open, and how he was dismayed at John Mahaffey's name being on display.  Point is that the membership takes pride in their champions, and the Green Jackets cannot be too thrilled with how the past two years have played out. 

 

2) Much like ESPN "loans out" Bilas to CBS for the NCAA Tournament, and how McEnroe can be found at every Grand Slam tennis event, I just hope that someday Johnny Miller can sit in the tower at 18 and commentate about the Masters.

 

3) Odds that my kids scream to watch Phineas and Ferb on Sunday afternoon...well, Vegas has taken them off the board.  Two words: Sure.  Thing. 

 

4) Lastly, some thoughts on some players headed into the week.

* Paddy Harrington.  If this was Tiger, every network would be on GRAND SLAM WATCH 2009.  Alas, it's just wee Paddy and nobody really gives a shit.  One interesting tidbit I came across - Paddy is in the midst of breaking in a new driver.  It says here you want to have your equipment nailed down and finely tuned headed into a major.  Paddy makes the cut but never really threatens. 

 

* Phil Mickelson.  I just cannot understand how one player can be so damned erratic.  Miss cut badly in Phoenix...win at Doral...miss cut horribly in Bay Hill.  Lefty is about as likely to win this as he is to shoot 76-76-MC.  I'm predicting a MC for the left-hander.

 

* Sergio Garcia.  Let's see.  Golfsmith and Taylor Made will refund the purchase price of your driver if the Bitch gets a green jacket.  That's a pretty good marketing ploy.  The bitch will win a major some day, but at least the first one will not be at the major that places the biggest emphasis on putting.  Maybe a Top 10, but not a serious contender. 

 

* Jim Furyk.  I'm so damned frustrated with him from a fantasy standpoint.  I'll be happy with a Top 25.  He's a grinder, better suited for a US Open (again) or a PGA. 

 

* Ernie Els.  The Big Easy has been a little frisky this year and could get it together for a strong run at the title.  He's been close recently - I believe in the Lefty years.  Would love to see him win it, but I'm not holding my breath. 

 

* Retief Goosen.  The vision is back, the putting stroke is back, as seen at Innisbrook.  This guy, to me, is the perfect candidate to win a Masters.  Plenty long enough.  Can work the flat stick.  Never seems to be phased by the situation.  Good bet for a Top 10.

 

* Chucky Three Sticks and Three Sticks Turd.  Unlikely to win given that they're not qualified to compete.  Sad, really. 

 

* Tiger Woods.  The perennial favorite here, with or without an ACL and with or without broken bones.  It all comes down to that Scotty Cameron.  If it's working - like it was at Bay Hill - he will not be beaten.  If it's not working, he still could easily win this, but it would get interesting.  Clearly the favorite. 

 

So let's hope for decent weather (the forecast looks that way), some interesting storylines and a competitive finish. 

Early Masters Wish List

My personal top 5 best-case scenarios for the Masters (excluding a Norman win of course):
1. Phil and Tiger - preferably with Phil winning
2. Tiger and Sergio, with Sergio winning -- or Sergio doubling 18 to give Tiger his 5th title
3. Phil and Ernie, part 2 - Ernie wins
4. Anthony Kim v. Tiger - any outcome
5. McIlroy v. Tiger - with McIlroy winning

Honorable mention: Tiger v. Harrington down the stretch

Bay Hill Roundup

Tiger Winning It Vs. O'Hair Losing It

While I agree that O'Hair only hit a few good shots all day, to say he gave it away is missing the point.

• Tiger shot the 2nd best score of the day - while in the final group...on Sunday...again.
• I know you all know this, but Tiger hasn't been in the hunt since last June.
• He didn't birdie either par 5 and still shot 67 (par 70).
• He had THREE buried lies in bunkers...and all three were under the LIP! Most mortals couldn't have gotten all 3 out, let alone anywhere within 20 feet.
• Give me a break with the putts he made on 14 (par), 15 (birdie) and 18 (birdie). Oh, and he got up and down for par on 16 from 100 yards or so.
• O' Hair played the last 11 holes in +1 on a not so easy course. This is hardly handing it to Tiger. I know..the ball in the water at #16 - he still got up and down for bogey. Admittedly, that did hurt badly.
• Let's not forget the 2 putts Tiger made on Saturday on #16 and #18 for BOGEY...that got him into the final group.
  

I hate to admit this (since I am a huge Nicklaus fan and want to see these guys actually stare Tiger down and beat him), but I was rooting for Tiger to win this thing. Sure, I had him on my team (in one league this week), but honestly, this guy is out of control amazing with the putts he has made on the last hole of tournaments the last 18 months. I jumped off the couch and started yelling "That is just ridiculous! How can anyone make all these putts!"

Here are some thoughts on a macro level:

• In this recession, Tiger is needed to help stave off the reduction of as many PGA tournaments as possible for those of us who love golf.
• The Bay Hill ratings were up 23% from last year and they were the highest ratings since the U.S. Open. No surprise really.
• NBC stayed with the golf 2 hours past their planned time. Sure, if it was a battle between O' Hair and Z. Johnson, they may have punted to the Golf Channel but as golf fans, this is great for us.
• The anticipation is palpable for a Phil / Tiger match-up down the stretch at the Masters. I have to believe the green jackets will do everything in their course set-up as possible to make sure they get an exciting Sunday finish after the last few years.
• I just can't believe how many amazing finishes Tiger has now delivered. I mean, it's other-worldly. I have no more words to describe it.