2012 SAFGL PREDICTIONS

Gentlemen. First off, let’s welcome in our newest league member, Dave “Stilts” Mornhinweg…oh, forget this. Blah, Blah. Blah. Just let’s get on with it. While we’ll miss Ardizone’s ridiculous draft strategy (drafting Joe Durant one year in an early round based on GIR stats for goodness sakes), his ridiculous general managing (picked up Tom Watson last year for the Greenbrier Classic) and ridiculous emails, it’s always great to welcome someone into the league with a similar talent for fantasy golf. And when I say that, I mean minimal. Ba Da Dum!!

2011 Quick Recap

Before moving on to thought on the 2012 season, let’s have a short synopsis of last year’s predictions.


Predicted to finish 8th: STEVE / Actual finish: 2nd

- McIlroy wins U.S. Open for mucho cash
- Day comes in runner-up in 2 majors and had numerous other solid finishes
- Got wins from Watson (2), Laird and Byrd
- Picked up Woodland & Wilson early in season and remained solid into playoffs
- Fowler won only $2.3MM but was ranked 3rd in 2nd round picks vs. league


Predicted to finish 7th: TIM / Actual finish: 1st

- Although I only had 3 wins in total, my top 3 of Kuchar, Donald and Watney were essentially on the leader board almost every tournament they teed it up…at least it seemed that way. They collected $16MM of my $29MM team total. Hello!
- Solid years from VJ and Van Pelt helped too. Plus pick-up Baddeley stayed near the top of the standings to get far in the playoffs. Basically, my team was a veritable ATM
- Reverse psychology of picking my team low worked like a charm!


Predicted to finish 6th: PETE / Actual finish: 7th

- Two words: Tim Clark – Only cashed in the 1st 2 events of the year. Yea, that doesn’t help your team from your #2 guy
- Oh, and Camilo Villegas took a major step backwards
- Zach Johnson and Ben Crane and Ricky Barnes all had down years too
- Only Stricker held up his end of the bargain, winning twice and cashing for $4.2MM
- In other words, a typical fantasy performance for Pete


Predicted to finish 5th: BRENDAN / Actual finish: 3rd

- Pick-up Keegan Bradley and his PGA win was huge - $2.5MM
- Didn’t Phil seem like he had a down year? Still won $4.4MM in this league
- Also collected wins from Snedeker and your FedEx Cup champion, Slick Billy Haas
- Oh yea, 9th pick Jason Dufner lost 2 playoffs, but won Brendan $3.8MM.
- Brendan is officially a league threat these days. Let’s hope this gooch works.


Predicted to finish 4th: BRIAN / Actual finish: 4th DING!

- Great finish to the season for his team with wins by Scott, Rose and 2 from American stud Webb Simpson
- Thankfully, Brian picked Paul Casey #6 instead of Luke Donald, paving the way for my 2nd win in a row.
- Brian also had solid years from Mahan, Moore and even Sergio
- Brian’s weak 1st half was too much to overcome but cashed 2nd in the 2nd half competition
- He can’t blame me for this prediction thankfully!


Predicted to finish 3rd: JOHNNY / Actual finish: 6th

- I must have been throwing Johnny a bone with this prediction, although I did highly qualify the forecast with this nugget: “But this team also has Johnny, and that means LOTS of SAFGL baggage.”
- Despite getting wins from Schwartzel at the Masters and Sabbatini at Honda, here were Johnny’s 1st 3 picks: Westwood, Els, Goosen. Say no more.


Predicted to finish 2nd: GREG / Actual finish: 5th

- Of Greg’s $22MM, he got $10MM from 2 guys, #1 pick Dustin Johnson and KJ Choi…after that…not so much
- Greg had a feeling his year was in trouble when Ogilvy lost a month when he sliced open his finger in Hawaii before even teeing off
- Ian Poulter is now the most overrated player on the planet and only garnered $800K for Greg’s team in the #3 position
- Appleby in Round 5, Louie O. in 6 and Brian Gay in 8 all disappointed
- It was a un-Greg-like performance that cost him the all-time lead in SAFGL history, What? Did you think I wasn’t going to mention it!


Predicted to finish 1st: FRIG / Actual finish: 8th

- Um. What could go wrong, did go wrong, including finally giving up on Sean O’Hair just before he won an event
- Furyk = worst year on Tour; Cink/Cabrera…ditto.
- AK = under-achiever to-date
- Glover won in Charlotte and did nothing else
- Frig’s team won a ridiculously low $3MM in the 4 majors combined.
- At least David Toms was a great pick in the 8th round.
- But when that’s the sole compliment of your year, it couldn’t have been good.


Overall Summary on picks: Dreadful. Except Brian!


Oh yea…and I had Rory and Bubba as Worst Picks of the Year.

Um. I had Cink and Allenby as Best Pick selections too.

Um….I didn’t pick any of the majors correctly…or who would get their first one.

Why do I do this?


BUT…………………..

I AM NOT AFRAID!!!!!

2012 SAFGL Predictions

Worst Pick:
Martin Kaymer #20 (Brian)
· This pick really all depends on if Kaymer can win a tournament or finish high in a major. I say he won’t do it. It’s as simple as that when you draft foreigners with only 10 events. Plus, with the FedEx Cup Playoff winners getting $1.4MM and Kaymer not playing in them, it’s simply hard to make these reaches pay off. Greg did it with Westwood a couple years back and Steve did OK with Rory last year but it’s asking a lot.

Honorable Mention: #23 – Graeme McDowell (Tim)
· Even I have no idea what my strategy is on this pick except I really like the guy. That may not be a good enough reason though if I want to triple-repeat. I need a bounce back year in the biggest way. If I get it, I may just retire!

Honorable Mention: #25 – Ian Poulter (Stilts) – Some guys never learn. Also see above.

Best Pick:
Bill Haas #12 (Brendan)
· Sure. Haas won the FedEx Cup but that doesn’t mean he’s peaked. After looking over the picks, Brendan is saying Haas is ready to carry the load. I agree.

Honorable Mention: #19 – Jim Furyk (Frig)
· While driving on the dark highways of Texas, Frig remembered that Furyk HAS TO get it back in 2012. Top 20 seems reasonable to me.


Most Likely to Win Their 1st Tour Event:
Rickie Fowler – Not really going out on a limb here but he IS the most likely to win his 1st event. (Note: I did not change any text from last year’s prediction)

Honorable Mention: Steve Marino – Now that I passed on him at #42, I’m sure Greg will take advantage at pick #48. He is SO DUE. (Note: This is not the same text from last year’s prediction, which unfortunately was Michael Sim)

Most Likely to Win Their 1st Major:
Luke Donald – While every other golf writer in America is saying the same, the fact remains the category does say “Most Likely”. The venues match his game, he has a great short game and his confidence has to be higher than ever.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Mahan– Although there are lots of options here, Hunter should be coming into his own and there is just too much baggage for other obvious picks like Westwood and Dustin Johnson.


LEAGUE PREDICTIONS:

8TH PLACE: This pick is so obvious, even a Cave Man could do it. It’s your newest league member, DAVE “STILTS/ROOKIE” MORNHINWEG.

· I will say that Scott/Simpson as his 1-2 punch is fine, but it all went downhill once Stilts had to actually think. Aaron Baddeley at #24? Poulter at #25? At these picks, you need something close to a sure thing, not guys who have never had multiple years of consistency and could just as easily finish outside the top 80. I just don’t see a lot of wins for this team…or any high finishes in majors, Scott withstanding. His bottom guys aren’t necessarily horrendous picks, but as a whole, I don’t see it. Stilts – I picked Steve to finish last in 2011 and he came in 2nd…so don’t give up yet. There is only upside!

7TH PLACE: I simply can’t pick someone high who did his draft in a car (although I did some great things in a car in college. HEY HO!). Please welcome MIKE “DON’T CALL ME COWBOY JUST BECAUSE I LIVE IN TEXAS” FRIGULETTO.


· Is Phil worthy of the #3 pick these days? Is Bubba Watson worthy of the #14 pick? Can Furyk bounce back? You could argue in any direction on Frig’s picks here. They aren’t too bad but let’s look at the remainder of his squad. Zach Johnson-Jason Dufner-Spencer Levin-Padraig Harrington-Ben Crane-Jeff Overton-Justin Leonard. No. No. No. I love Paddy but I don’t trust him that much anymore. Justin Leonard is “junk”. Ben Crane is too inconsistent and I don’t know what to make of Spencer Levin at this point, but I wasn’t drafting him. Frig – my one year experiment picking you ahead of me was a disaster. Get back in your rightful place!

6TH PLACE: No one is happier with this selection than the selectee himself and that man is none other than BRIAN “THE SUN IS SETTING BUT NOW I CAN SEE THE MOON-BAE” SMITH.

· Now, I don’t even know if I spelled this guy’s name right and nor do I care but are you kidding me? Brian drafts a guy no one has ever heard of but somehow is ranked in the top 35 or so. Really? How is that even possible? How is Ian Poulter ranked in the top 20? Brian’s team has a lot of international flair and that always spells low # of starts. In fact, Brian’s team has nary an American on it so on principle, I have to select him low. Don’t get me wrong, I love Jason Day and Brian could cash, but I just don’t trust Sergio, Karlsson (except while walking in Memphis), Villegas or Els. Did he really draft Sung Moon Bae???!!!

5TH PLACE: Wishing I wasn’t really picking myself here but hoping for the best, it’s TIM “DID I REALLY PICK GRAEME MCDOWELL AT #23” OWENS


· Hey, I do have 4 repeat guys on my winning team from 2011, but none of them are named Donald. I do have many of my picks in the big events, but I don’t have a lot of experience in actually winning them. Bo Van Pelt played solid last year and won overseas in the silly season but I need him to take it up another level if I am to make some noise this year. My lineup simply doesn’t cause fear in any of you. I should avoid a miserable season since I have stalwarts Kuchar and Watney. I could use a couple of unexpected wins from someone like Cink or Hoffman. Would you count on that? Me neither.


4TH PLACE: Picking him higher than usual given historical performance, it’s PETE “I HAVEN’T CASHED IN THIS CENTURY” BACAS.

· Yes. That’s right. Pete has not cashed since he partied in 1999. That is a miserable performance that causes one to wonder if he might pull an Ardizone next year. Nah. He’s tougher than that….maybe. Anyway, I would have picked Donald at #2, but Dustin Johnson is nothing to sneeze at, although I would LOVE to take him on in Jeopardy. Dumber than a box of rocks? Possibly. Rickie Fowler didn’t live up to his 2nd round pick status in 2011 but this was at least a late 2nd round pick and he should be even better this year. Keegan Bradley was Pete’s next look and Pete believes. I do to although asking for another major in this day and age is a ridiculous ask. I think where Pete sold me was in the middle rounds: Byrd, Toms, Glover, and O’Hair. The Mr. Consistent Award could never be won by 3 of these guys, but there is potential in that foursome and someone should win, maybe two of them. Stallings, Palmer and Adams round out his bottom 3. Only 1 of them will remain by year’s end.

3rd PLACE: Trying to claw his way back to the top of this league after two years of mediocrity it’s GREG “I STILL USE PINGS FROM THE 1990s” SMITH.


· After 3 rounds (McIlroy-Choi-Mahan), I had Greg making a triumphant return to the top. But then things got interesting. Sabbatini, Kim, Marino have potential but are they even in any majors this year? Then it’s Vegas, Holmes, Goosen, and Clark. Yikes. Again, the potential - but I could easily see these guys grinding away making cuts, preventing Greg from dropping them but getting no high finishes. However, I like Mahan to perhaps win a major this year and you can’t argue with the potential of Rory. By the way, Greg has 2 Rory’s on his team, perhaps a first. He also has a KJ, AK and JB too. Somehow, this alphabet soup will help Greg be in the mix all year and definitely cash somewhere.

2nd PLACE: Introducing my brother from the same mother it’s STEVE “LOOKING FOR 10 IN A ROW” OWENS.

· True statement. Steve has cashed every year since 2002 and looking to round it off with 10 years in a row and I say “Yes”. To continue his run, Steve drafted the major potential of newly minted Tour member, Lee Westwood as his 1st round pick at #6. I truly believe Westwood’s chipping will continue to do him in down the stretches, along with the ever-growing realization that he’s losing the battle of time against the young guns. Steve added Stricker at #11, which is a steal based on past performance, and then got up-and-comer Gary Woodland just before me (“NEWMAN!”) at #22. I also like Steve’s team depth with Ogilvy, Yang, Steele, Na (finally a winner) and Stanley. Everyone thinks Harris English is the guy to watch from the Nationwide Tour and then Louie, Louis is still in all the big events to help Steve out if he can catch the magic again. Simply put, it’s hard to argue with Steve’s league performance over the last decade. Mark it down – 10 in a row.

1st PLACE: The proverbial kiss of death selection goes to BRENDAN “LET ME TAKE A 1/2 SWING AT….WHOA I HAVE TO SWING FOR THE FENCES!!” FISH.


· Brendan is now a factor in this league and no longer the butt of my jokes. Listen – Luke Donald falling to Brendan at #5 is a GIFT of monstrous proportions. He followed it up with my pick for Best Pick, Bill Haas. Then Masters champ Schwartzel in the 3rd round, who can win anywhere, and then talented and multi-winner Snedeker. Now, Snedeker is coming off some repairs and Casey just messed up his knee (but I wasn’t counting on much from him anyway), but Brendan solidified his line-up in Round 6 with Top 20 machine CH3, a resurgent VJ at pick #53 and then got Molder, Reavie and Points at the bottom; not sexy names, but decent guys to round out a team. Not only that, but Brendan also started making waves on the Waiver Wire last year (picking up Bradley prior to the PGA win). Brendan’s #1 concern has to be injuries to Snedeker, Casey and VJ. Even Reavie was hurt a couple years back. Still, welcome to relevance Brendan. Now please mess it up!