2013 SAFGL Predictions

"You're trying this AGAIN Owens?"

 

2013 SAFGL Predictions

 

Worst Pick:

Jordan Spieth #68 (Greg)

• The last time a non-PGA TOUR cardholder draft pick was lambasted by me, that pick went on to win the British Open (D. Clarke). But in the strangest pick in some time (some may called it Johnny-esque), Greg selects a guy with no status and limited to sponsor exemptions. Yea, it’s a throwaway pick in the 9^th round, but those picks should be used on someone who might actually be guaranteed to peg it! 

Honorable Mention: #38 – Noh (Brian)

• Somehow finished in the top 40 in the FedEx Cup Standings despite not being in the mix one time that I can remember last year. I thought there were lots of other options here to pick someone at least in the big events. Did make 24 of 28 cuts last year.

2^nd Honorable Mention: #25 – Ian Poulter (Frig) – This is the same pick as Stilts last year. So….after finishing 60^th in the FedEx Cup standings in 2012, why not reach? Only plays 15 tournaments and usually doesn’t show up for ½ of them. This pick just isn’t justified. (Speaking of Justified, another season starts on 1/8 on FX. Check it out…you won’t be disappointed!)

 

Best Pick:

Jason Day #22 (Brian)

• Yes. Despite a tough 2012 that Brian endured with pick #4, he is doubling-down on this guy. But frankly, I agree as I was likely picking him one pick later at #23. Too much talent and will work hard to get back to form. Still, has only won once on Tour.  

Honorable Mention: #39 – Tim Clark (Tim)

• If healthy, this guy is a lock for top 30 $$ finish. Quietly played well towards the end of 2012 after coming back from health issues. Obviously, staying healthy is paramount. 

Most Likely to Win Their 1^st Tour Event:

Charlie Wi – 2^nd at AT&T, T-3^rd at The Greenbrier and T-4^th at The Texas Open in 2012. Not really a young guy, but going with someone who seems close if he could just make a couple of putts down the stretch.

 

Honorable Mention: Matt Every – Loads of talent, lots of attitude; Most likely to win an event on the West Coast or an opposite field event.

Most Likely to Win Their 1^st Major:

Adam Scott – Been in contention the last 2 Masters and we all know about the British Open last year. Despite Stevie letting him down down the stretch in that event, I think Adam believes in himself finally, which is key. And he still has 3 more years left to use the belly putter!

Honorable Mention: Justin Rose – Has won some decent events on Tour the last few years and seems to be more consistent now too. Wasn’t in the mix last year at the majors despite some respectable finishes.

ALUMNI FINISHES:

8^TH PLACE:  In what’s getting to be a tradition, I’ll again select STILTS to be the league bottom-feeder.

• While I like the statement Stilts made by picking Bradley at #2 (and rattling Greg – more on that shortly), many of Stilts’ picks were a round too early such as McDowell, Cauley & Baddeley. Not everything is Stilts’ fault though…Steve Stricker just announced he’ll play a mere 10 events in 2013. How the heck will he stay tournament sharp? He won’t, and he was already a non-factor in majors – and that now comprises 40% of his schedule! Ouch. While I love McDowell, pick #15 is really a stretch with his own limited starts and the majors worth less than last year. There is hope here with Kaymer & Ishikawa now maintaining full Tour cards and lots of potential. But in reality, they haven’t played well in over 18 months. Another issue with Stilts’ team is the lack of guys even eligible for the majors and big events right now. But hey, I picked Stilts to finish last in 2012…and let me see here…he finished…checking my files….oh, he finished 7^th. Oy. Maybe we’ll let Rory back in the league for Stilts’ inevitable lottery pick in the fall. 

7^TH PLACE:  I’ll say it’s former #1 (seems like ancient history, doesn’t it?) SAFGL all-time money winner, GREG.

• After hearing Stilts pick Bradley unexpectedly at #2, Greg reached for Masters Champ Bubba Watson at #4 as his go-to-guy in 2013. Greg followed that up with Watney at #13 (off year in 2012) and Zach Johnson at #20. OK. But then, Greg picked 4 guys in his next 7 who will be playing the Tour for the 1^st time. (Colsaerts, Hanson, Spieth & Lynn). I doubt the last 2 will be on Greg’s roster by the time Florida rolls around. The plus side is that Colsaerts & Hanson will be in all of the big events. However, there is obvious risk. Will Colsaerts live up to his potential? Did Hanson have a career year in 2012 a la lots of other foreign guys over the history of our league? Leishman was picked at #45 despite basically having one good tournament in his entire career. Senden should be OK. Greg also drafted Mark “Nails When I’m Playing the West Coast Swing” Wilson who basically couldn’t have kept a card if you used his 2^nd half 2012 performances as a guidepost. Just too many question marks from guys we have never depended on in the past to pick Greg any higher.

 

 

 

 

 

6^TH PLACE: Executing his “Defending the Crown” draft from the comfort of his own home, it’s FRIG.

• Now, I like Frig’s top 3 picks of Dustin, Dufner & B. Haas. But after that? Meh. Poulter (picked too early/overrated), Ogilvy (plain vanilla performance for 2-3 yrs. now), Stanley (no top 10’s after his W last year), Levin, Wi & Points. And for his last pick, Frig selected unknown Roberto Castro (although I hear he’s a riot on Twitter). I’m surprised that I didn’t take Dustin at #7, but what is it about him that makes me not trust him? Injuries? Sunday major meltdowns? IQ < 75? All of the above. Can Dufner keep sustaining his great play? Probably to an extent, but I don’t think like 2012. Hass didn’t really do much after his win in L.A. but he should show up a couple of times to win or pick up a 2^nd. I could see Frig cashing if DJ finally wins his major, but there seems to be a lot of other talent looking to finally win theirs too and plus you still have to worry about World #1 Rory. I just think the middle of Frig’s line-up is too questionable to elicit a predicted finish higher than this.  

5^TH PLACE:  Strategically picking him in the middle of the pack so I can’t get blamed for his finish, it’s BRIAN.

 

• As mentioned previously, I like Rose to get his 1^st major. And though I don’t expect Westwood to ever win a major at this point, the guy obviously still has game and is better suited as a 2^nd round pick as Brian selected him vs. a 1^st round pick (think Johnny & Steve). I already said I think Day bounces back. If Sergio can do just a little bit more, there’s nothing wrong with him at #27. I really don’t love the rest of Brian’s picks although English & deJonge should be OK. Perhaps the biggest head scratcher to me was all the love in both leagues for Jonas Blixt. Totally unproven and now that I look at it, perhaps he should have been in my Worst Picks section. I’m calling him the most likely guy to not finish in the top 125 in 2013. (Watch him win in Kapalua now). Ross Fisher is interesting in the 9^th round, but he’s simply another foreigner who hasn’t sustained multiple years of good play.

 

4^TH PLACE: Probably picking him lower than I should based on the picks on paper, it’s BRENDAN.

• Donald. Mahan. Furyk. Els. Harrington. Yes. That’s on paper. The reality is that 3 of those “names” are in their 40’s. Furyk threw up all over himself in the largest spotlights last year and I just think he’s mentally done. Despite Ernie winning his 4^th major, what’s more likely? A follow-up performance or a gradual degradation of his game as he gets older, a la DL3? Will the real Hunter Mahan stand up?! I am finally off the Paddy-wagon after years of his swing tinkering. Still, there’s enough talent in that group to think Brendan will be in the mix and likely cash somewhere during the year. I like a couple of Brendan’s other picks too, like Scott Piercy, who I think is finding his game, and Matt Every, another talented guy picked at #78. Ben Curtis, Jimmy Walker & Sean O’Hair are too risky for me (doesn’t Curtis go back to sleep for years after a win?), but Brendan will simply jettison one of them for Rory during the bidding wars. If I trusted Brendan as a GM (see side picture), I might have him higher but he’ll have to settle for 4^th and try to prove me wrong

 

 

3rd PLACE: Probably picking him higher than I should based on the picks on paper, it’s STEVE.

• Despite some uncertainty in the back half of his team, I simply think Steve’s top 4 are pretty solid in Phil, Kooch, Louie & Moore. Obviously, Phil was a surprise to be available at #5, and although many are worried about his health, age and whatever else, he is still a threat to win any West Coast tournament and the Masters. Despite a supposedly “down” year, he finished 9^th in SAFGL $$. Kuchar is a proverbial ATM, this generation’s Scott Hoch, and the winner of the Players last year. Louis O. almost won the Masters and was in contention in nearly every tournament he played during the 2^nd half across all continents. He is a threat to win any tournament. Ryan Moore put up a bunch of top 10’s last year and then added a win during the Fall Series. And while I say there is uncertainty in the back half of Steve’s team (Choi, Overton, Toms, Holmes), I think 2 of these guys bounce back and finish in the top 40. And don’t forget Rookie of the Year, Johnny Question Mark…meh, he was pretty pedestrian over the 2^nd half of 2012, but whatever. Steve’s past performance is probably gaining him a spot in the predictions.

 

 

 

 

 

2nd PLACE: Probably picking myself too low based on past performance it’s ME.

With the reigning U.S. Open and FedEx Cup Champion as my anchors, I am feeling good about being competitive in 2013. Both guys missed a little time in 2012 too, so I’m hoping for even more. Simpson has shown to have the right stuff for a young gun and Sneds is ready to take it to the next level in a major or WGC event (he almost won the Masters one year). And though Schwartzel finished only 55^th in SAFGL $$ in 2012, I liken him to my McDowell pick last year around the same position. I’m hoping he’s a factor in a couple of the majors after showing some good form the last few months in the Far East. Bo Van Pelt doesn’t seem to win, but he seems to have taken his game to a pretty high, consistent level and should be a safe pick at #26. I already mentioned Tim Clark as the Pick of the Year. And though I finished my draft with a who’s who of recent IR reports (Woodland, Stallings & Singh), I feel like the talent is there for one of these guys to have a huge comeback, although not all of them will. By the way, how did Kevin Na fall all the way to #55? I think it’s because no one likes rooting for him. Anyway, that leaves one alumni…

 

 

 

 

1^st PLACE: The proverbial kiss of death selection as this year’s 2013 SAFGL Champion goes to PETE.

• You mean, Pete, the guy who hasn’t cashed since 1999? You mean Pete, the guy who had Tim Clark, his 2^nd round pick in 2011, injured for most of that year? You mean Pete, the guy who had Dustin, Stallings, Toms & Glover injured during various portions of the 2012 campaign? You mean Pete, the guy who kept Alvaro Quiros on his team for months in 2012? YES, IT’S THAT PETE! Pete could do no wrong during his 1^st 5 rounds, selecting Tiger with Pick #1, Adam Scott at pick #16 (#16?!!! I almost picked him at pick #10!), Rickie Fowler at pick #17, Carl “Swedish Red Neck” Pettersson at #32 and Robert “Swampy” Garrigus at pick #33. Wow. Crane was fine at #48 despite his injury risk (oh no, did I say “injury”? Sorry Pete, but what are the chances again?) I didn’t like the Wagner or Freddie Yak picks but Bae and Kirk were fine in the 9^th and 10^th rounds. Pete is SO DUE. He won the 1^st lottery pick. Adam Scott fell to him at #16. Rickie Fowler was still there at #17. Although now that I think about it, Rickie did admit later in the year he was slightly hurt with a tender back during the 2^nd half (wait…is that an injury even though he played? Ewwww.). Now that I think of it, Tiger was oft-injured in 2011…and 2008…and 2009. Adam Scott tweaked his knee surfing one year didn’t he? I think Garrigus has a balky back at times too. Oh for goodness sake Pete, what did you do? Is there ANYONE on your team that hasn’t missed time due to injury????!!! Pete is SO DUE.  Pete is SO DUE. Pete is SO DUE. What could go wrong? Pete? Pete? Damn it…Pete’s at the ER just waiting for one of his guys to show up!

(Pete giving me grief for picking him 1st this year)