2013 SAFGL Predictions

"You're trying this AGAIN Owens?"

 

2013 SAFGL Predictions

 

Worst Pick:

Jordan Spieth #68 (Greg)

• The last time a non-PGA TOUR cardholder draft pick was lambasted by me, that pick went on to win the British Open (D. Clarke). But in the strangest pick in some time (some may called it Johnny-esque), Greg selects a guy with no status and limited to sponsor exemptions. Yea, it’s a throwaway pick in the 9^th round, but those picks should be used on someone who might actually be guaranteed to peg it! 

Honorable Mention: #38 – Noh (Brian)

• Somehow finished in the top 40 in the FedEx Cup Standings despite not being in the mix one time that I can remember last year. I thought there were lots of other options here to pick someone at least in the big events. Did make 24 of 28 cuts last year.

2^nd Honorable Mention: #25 – Ian Poulter (Frig) – This is the same pick as Stilts last year. So….after finishing 60^th in the FedEx Cup standings in 2012, why not reach? Only plays 15 tournaments and usually doesn’t show up for ½ of them. This pick just isn’t justified. (Speaking of Justified, another season starts on 1/8 on FX. Check it out…you won’t be disappointed!)

 

Best Pick:

Jason Day #22 (Brian)

• Yes. Despite a tough 2012 that Brian endured with pick #4, he is doubling-down on this guy. But frankly, I agree as I was likely picking him one pick later at #23. Too much talent and will work hard to get back to form. Still, has only won once on Tour.  

Honorable Mention: #39 – Tim Clark (Tim)

• If healthy, this guy is a lock for top 30 $$ finish. Quietly played well towards the end of 2012 after coming back from health issues. Obviously, staying healthy is paramount. 

Most Likely to Win Their 1^st Tour Event:

Charlie Wi – 2^nd at AT&T, T-3^rd at The Greenbrier and T-4^th at The Texas Open in 2012. Not really a young guy, but going with someone who seems close if he could just make a couple of putts down the stretch.

 

Honorable Mention: Matt Every – Loads of talent, lots of attitude; Most likely to win an event on the West Coast or an opposite field event.

Most Likely to Win Their 1^st Major:

Adam Scott – Been in contention the last 2 Masters and we all know about the British Open last year. Despite Stevie letting him down down the stretch in that event, I think Adam believes in himself finally, which is key. And he still has 3 more years left to use the belly putter!

Honorable Mention: Justin Rose – Has won some decent events on Tour the last few years and seems to be more consistent now too. Wasn’t in the mix last year at the majors despite some respectable finishes.

ALUMNI FINISHES:

8^TH PLACE:  In what’s getting to be a tradition, I’ll again select STILTS to be the league bottom-feeder.

• While I like the statement Stilts made by picking Bradley at #2 (and rattling Greg – more on that shortly), many of Stilts’ picks were a round too early such as McDowell, Cauley & Baddeley. Not everything is Stilts’ fault though…Steve Stricker just announced he’ll play a mere 10 events in 2013. How the heck will he stay tournament sharp? He won’t, and he was already a non-factor in majors – and that now comprises 40% of his schedule! Ouch. While I love McDowell, pick #15 is really a stretch with his own limited starts and the majors worth less than last year. There is hope here with Kaymer & Ishikawa now maintaining full Tour cards and lots of potential. But in reality, they haven’t played well in over 18 months. Another issue with Stilts’ team is the lack of guys even eligible for the majors and big events right now. But hey, I picked Stilts to finish last in 2012…and let me see here…he finished…checking my files….oh, he finished 7^th. Oy. Maybe we’ll let Rory back in the league for Stilts’ inevitable lottery pick in the fall. 

7^TH PLACE:  I’ll say it’s former #1 (seems like ancient history, doesn’t it?) SAFGL all-time money winner, GREG.

• After hearing Stilts pick Bradley unexpectedly at #2, Greg reached for Masters Champ Bubba Watson at #4 as his go-to-guy in 2013. Greg followed that up with Watney at #13 (off year in 2012) and Zach Johnson at #20. OK. But then, Greg picked 4 guys in his next 7 who will be playing the Tour for the 1^st time. (Colsaerts, Hanson, Spieth & Lynn). I doubt the last 2 will be on Greg’s roster by the time Florida rolls around. The plus side is that Colsaerts & Hanson will be in all of the big events. However, there is obvious risk. Will Colsaerts live up to his potential? Did Hanson have a career year in 2012 a la lots of other foreign guys over the history of our league? Leishman was picked at #45 despite basically having one good tournament in his entire career. Senden should be OK. Greg also drafted Mark “Nails When I’m Playing the West Coast Swing” Wilson who basically couldn’t have kept a card if you used his 2^nd half 2012 performances as a guidepost. Just too many question marks from guys we have never depended on in the past to pick Greg any higher.

 

 

 

 

 

6^TH PLACE: Executing his “Defending the Crown” draft from the comfort of his own home, it’s FRIG.

• Now, I like Frig’s top 3 picks of Dustin, Dufner & B. Haas. But after that? Meh. Poulter (picked too early/overrated), Ogilvy (plain vanilla performance for 2-3 yrs. now), Stanley (no top 10’s after his W last year), Levin, Wi & Points. And for his last pick, Frig selected unknown Roberto Castro (although I hear he’s a riot on Twitter). I’m surprised that I didn’t take Dustin at #7, but what is it about him that makes me not trust him? Injuries? Sunday major meltdowns? IQ < 75? All of the above. Can Dufner keep sustaining his great play? Probably to an extent, but I don’t think like 2012. Hass didn’t really do much after his win in L.A. but he should show up a couple of times to win or pick up a 2^nd. I could see Frig cashing if DJ finally wins his major, but there seems to be a lot of other talent looking to finally win theirs too and plus you still have to worry about World #1 Rory. I just think the middle of Frig’s line-up is too questionable to elicit a predicted finish higher than this.  

5^TH PLACE:  Strategically picking him in the middle of the pack so I can’t get blamed for his finish, it’s BRIAN.

 

• As mentioned previously, I like Rose to get his 1^st major. And though I don’t expect Westwood to ever win a major at this point, the guy obviously still has game and is better suited as a 2^nd round pick as Brian selected him vs. a 1^st round pick (think Johnny & Steve). I already said I think Day bounces back. If Sergio can do just a little bit more, there’s nothing wrong with him at #27. I really don’t love the rest of Brian’s picks although English & deJonge should be OK. Perhaps the biggest head scratcher to me was all the love in both leagues for Jonas Blixt. Totally unproven and now that I look at it, perhaps he should have been in my Worst Picks section. I’m calling him the most likely guy to not finish in the top 125 in 2013. (Watch him win in Kapalua now). Ross Fisher is interesting in the 9^th round, but he’s simply another foreigner who hasn’t sustained multiple years of good play.

 

4^TH PLACE: Probably picking him lower than I should based on the picks on paper, it’s BRENDAN.

• Donald. Mahan. Furyk. Els. Harrington. Yes. That’s on paper. The reality is that 3 of those “names” are in their 40’s. Furyk threw up all over himself in the largest spotlights last year and I just think he’s mentally done. Despite Ernie winning his 4^th major, what’s more likely? A follow-up performance or a gradual degradation of his game as he gets older, a la DL3? Will the real Hunter Mahan stand up?! I am finally off the Paddy-wagon after years of his swing tinkering. Still, there’s enough talent in that group to think Brendan will be in the mix and likely cash somewhere during the year. I like a couple of Brendan’s other picks too, like Scott Piercy, who I think is finding his game, and Matt Every, another talented guy picked at #78. Ben Curtis, Jimmy Walker & Sean O’Hair are too risky for me (doesn’t Curtis go back to sleep for years after a win?), but Brendan will simply jettison one of them for Rory during the bidding wars. If I trusted Brendan as a GM (see side picture), I might have him higher but he’ll have to settle for 4^th and try to prove me wrong

 

 

3rd PLACE: Probably picking him higher than I should based on the picks on paper, it’s STEVE.

• Despite some uncertainty in the back half of his team, I simply think Steve’s top 4 are pretty solid in Phil, Kooch, Louie & Moore. Obviously, Phil was a surprise to be available at #5, and although many are worried about his health, age and whatever else, he is still a threat to win any West Coast tournament and the Masters. Despite a supposedly “down” year, he finished 9^th in SAFGL $$. Kuchar is a proverbial ATM, this generation’s Scott Hoch, and the winner of the Players last year. Louis O. almost won the Masters and was in contention in nearly every tournament he played during the 2^nd half across all continents. He is a threat to win any tournament. Ryan Moore put up a bunch of top 10’s last year and then added a win during the Fall Series. And while I say there is uncertainty in the back half of Steve’s team (Choi, Overton, Toms, Holmes), I think 2 of these guys bounce back and finish in the top 40. And don’t forget Rookie of the Year, Johnny Question Mark…meh, he was pretty pedestrian over the 2^nd half of 2012, but whatever. Steve’s past performance is probably gaining him a spot in the predictions.

 

 

 

 

 

2nd PLACE: Probably picking myself too low based on past performance it’s ME.

With the reigning U.S. Open and FedEx Cup Champion as my anchors, I am feeling good about being competitive in 2013. Both guys missed a little time in 2012 too, so I’m hoping for even more. Simpson has shown to have the right stuff for a young gun and Sneds is ready to take it to the next level in a major or WGC event (he almost won the Masters one year). And though Schwartzel finished only 55^th in SAFGL $$ in 2012, I liken him to my McDowell pick last year around the same position. I’m hoping he’s a factor in a couple of the majors after showing some good form the last few months in the Far East. Bo Van Pelt doesn’t seem to win, but he seems to have taken his game to a pretty high, consistent level and should be a safe pick at #26. I already mentioned Tim Clark as the Pick of the Year. And though I finished my draft with a who’s who of recent IR reports (Woodland, Stallings & Singh), I feel like the talent is there for one of these guys to have a huge comeback, although not all of them will. By the way, how did Kevin Na fall all the way to #55? I think it’s because no one likes rooting for him. Anyway, that leaves one alumni…

 

 

 

 

1^st PLACE: The proverbial kiss of death selection as this year’s 2013 SAFGL Champion goes to PETE.

• You mean, Pete, the guy who hasn’t cashed since 1999? You mean Pete, the guy who had Tim Clark, his 2^nd round pick in 2011, injured for most of that year? You mean Pete, the guy who had Dustin, Stallings, Toms & Glover injured during various portions of the 2012 campaign? You mean Pete, the guy who kept Alvaro Quiros on his team for months in 2012? YES, IT’S THAT PETE! Pete could do no wrong during his 1^st 5 rounds, selecting Tiger with Pick #1, Adam Scott at pick #16 (#16?!!! I almost picked him at pick #10!), Rickie Fowler at pick #17, Carl “Swedish Red Neck” Pettersson at #32 and Robert “Swampy” Garrigus at pick #33. Wow. Crane was fine at #48 despite his injury risk (oh no, did I say “injury”? Sorry Pete, but what are the chances again?) I didn’t like the Wagner or Freddie Yak picks but Bae and Kirk were fine in the 9^th and 10^th rounds. Pete is SO DUE. He won the 1^st lottery pick. Adam Scott fell to him at #16. Rickie Fowler was still there at #17. Although now that I think about it, Rickie did admit later in the year he was slightly hurt with a tender back during the 2^nd half (wait…is that an injury even though he played? Ewwww.). Now that I think of it, Tiger was oft-injured in 2011…and 2008…and 2009. Adam Scott tweaked his knee surfing one year didn’t he? I think Garrigus has a balky back at times too. Oh for goodness sake Pete, what did you do? Is there ANYONE on your team that hasn’t missed time due to injury????!!! Pete is SO DUE.  Pete is SO DUE. Pete is SO DUE. What could go wrong? Pete? Pete? Damn it…Pete’s at the ER just waiting for one of his guys to show up!

(Pete giving me grief for picking him 1st this year)

 

2012 Olympic Preview/Picks

OK. Who's excited for the U.S. Open at Olympic Club? Not everyone at once please!. Why aren't folks excited for this Open? There's a long list of reasons:

• No list of great winners other than Hall of Famer Billy Casper. 
• He the recipient of Arnold Palmer's infamous collapse on the back nine when he lost a 7-shot lead with 9 to play.
• Other winners: Fleck, Simpson, Janzen (ZZZZZ...)
• There really isn't a signature hole at Olympic.
• Sure, folks say it's the 18th hole, but we're talking about a 344-yard finishing hole with a ribbon fairway. Remember 1998 when Payne Stewart's ball rolled all the way to the front of the green after a missed sidehill putt? Yea. Though that won't happen again, that doesn't help Olympic's cause.
• There is no par 5 on the course until you hit #16. Oh, and the next hole is a par 5 too. Really?
• The protection on this course is the "Reverse Camber" effect, where basically the holes turn right to left but the ground is going to the right, and vice versa. Yea, that's exciting.
• How about the fact that when they go off split tees the first 2 days, half the field actually starts on #9. AWKWARD!
• And finally, controversy is already starting to boil about the shaved areas to the left of the par 3 13th hole and the right side of the now reachable par 5 17th hole. Mike Davis even admitted last night that #13 has gotten away from them and they are letting the grass grow now there.
• But hey, Johnny Miller grew up playing here so he's excited!

OK. So who's going to win the thing? Well, given that other than Tiger, no players at the top of the World Rankings have actually won an Open the last few years, I think you have to look a little deeper down the Rankings to find that player who is solid, but clearly an underdog. So I'm going with none other than Swede Peter Hanson. That would be Sweden's 1st major win if he actually pulls it off.

He's played well in some big events lately and played solid last week in his home country. My one concern is the serious jet lag he may encounter crossing so many time zones, but despite that, he fits perfectly with the list of winners on this track.

The rest of my top 10  list is probably not much of a surprise except no Tiger, Phil or Rory. I'm just not feeling it on this track. I hope I'm wrong about Phil though.

• Luke Donald - great short game and don't need to be all that long here.
• Justin Rose - starting to win more often on Tour and is in that list of 2nd tier players who need that major soon to justify their status as a great player.
• Matt Kuchar - hard to pick Kooch to win this after grabbing the Players since no one has ever won both in the same year
• Steve Stricker - running out of time, but great short game should give him advantages (see Luke)
• Jum Furyk - not as consistent as in previous years, but has played fairly well this year overall
• Ian Poulter - while I don't love this guy, he's usually solid in big events even though he's never really contended in any one of them (don't tell me about that putt at the British...he wasn't that close to the lead)
• Zach Johnson - playing great of late, has won a major and putts well. Can you imagine if Zach collected a 2nd major before some of these other guys like Westwood, Donald, Sergio won their 1st?
• Ben Crane - All the "Golf Boys" (P.S. - make it stop) has actually won since that ridiculous video and although Ben won't win, he's had some good finishes this year too. It would be great to see him walk down #18 with a 2-shot lead and pull out the helmet as he walked up to the green.
• Lee Westwood - a favorite by many experts but I just don't trust his short game down the stretch.

So there you have it. Who are your picks for Olympic in this Olympic year? Let me know!

2012 SAFGL PREDICTIONS

Gentlemen. First off, let’s welcome in our newest league member, Dave “Stilts” Mornhinweg…oh, forget this. Blah, Blah. Blah. Just let’s get on with it. While we’ll miss Ardizone’s ridiculous draft strategy (drafting Joe Durant one year in an early round based on GIR stats for goodness sakes), his ridiculous general managing (picked up Tom Watson last year for the Greenbrier Classic) and ridiculous emails, it’s always great to welcome someone into the league with a similar talent for fantasy golf. And when I say that, I mean minimal. Ba Da Dum!!

2011 Quick Recap

Before moving on to thought on the 2012 season, let’s have a short synopsis of last year’s predictions.


Predicted to finish 8th: STEVE / Actual finish: 2nd

- McIlroy wins U.S. Open for mucho cash
- Day comes in runner-up in 2 majors and had numerous other solid finishes
- Got wins from Watson (2), Laird and Byrd
- Picked up Woodland & Wilson early in season and remained solid into playoffs
- Fowler won only $2.3MM but was ranked 3rd in 2nd round picks vs. league


Predicted to finish 7th: TIM / Actual finish: 1st

- Although I only had 3 wins in total, my top 3 of Kuchar, Donald and Watney were essentially on the leader board almost every tournament they teed it up…at least it seemed that way. They collected $16MM of my $29MM team total. Hello!
- Solid years from VJ and Van Pelt helped too. Plus pick-up Baddeley stayed near the top of the standings to get far in the playoffs. Basically, my team was a veritable ATM
- Reverse psychology of picking my team low worked like a charm!


Predicted to finish 6th: PETE / Actual finish: 7th

- Two words: Tim Clark – Only cashed in the 1st 2 events of the year. Yea, that doesn’t help your team from your #2 guy
- Oh, and Camilo Villegas took a major step backwards
- Zach Johnson and Ben Crane and Ricky Barnes all had down years too
- Only Stricker held up his end of the bargain, winning twice and cashing for $4.2MM
- In other words, a typical fantasy performance for Pete


Predicted to finish 5th: BRENDAN / Actual finish: 3rd

- Pick-up Keegan Bradley and his PGA win was huge - $2.5MM
- Didn’t Phil seem like he had a down year? Still won $4.4MM in this league
- Also collected wins from Snedeker and your FedEx Cup champion, Slick Billy Haas
- Oh yea, 9th pick Jason Dufner lost 2 playoffs, but won Brendan $3.8MM.
- Brendan is officially a league threat these days. Let’s hope this gooch works.


Predicted to finish 4th: BRIAN / Actual finish: 4th DING!

- Great finish to the season for his team with wins by Scott, Rose and 2 from American stud Webb Simpson
- Thankfully, Brian picked Paul Casey #6 instead of Luke Donald, paving the way for my 2nd win in a row.
- Brian also had solid years from Mahan, Moore and even Sergio
- Brian’s weak 1st half was too much to overcome but cashed 2nd in the 2nd half competition
- He can’t blame me for this prediction thankfully!


Predicted to finish 3rd: JOHNNY / Actual finish: 6th

- I must have been throwing Johnny a bone with this prediction, although I did highly qualify the forecast with this nugget: “But this team also has Johnny, and that means LOTS of SAFGL baggage.”
- Despite getting wins from Schwartzel at the Masters and Sabbatini at Honda, here were Johnny’s 1st 3 picks: Westwood, Els, Goosen. Say no more.


Predicted to finish 2nd: GREG / Actual finish: 5th

- Of Greg’s $22MM, he got $10MM from 2 guys, #1 pick Dustin Johnson and KJ Choi…after that…not so much
- Greg had a feeling his year was in trouble when Ogilvy lost a month when he sliced open his finger in Hawaii before even teeing off
- Ian Poulter is now the most overrated player on the planet and only garnered $800K for Greg’s team in the #3 position
- Appleby in Round 5, Louie O. in 6 and Brian Gay in 8 all disappointed
- It was a un-Greg-like performance that cost him the all-time lead in SAFGL history, What? Did you think I wasn’t going to mention it!


Predicted to finish 1st: FRIG / Actual finish: 8th

- Um. What could go wrong, did go wrong, including finally giving up on Sean O’Hair just before he won an event
- Furyk = worst year on Tour; Cink/Cabrera…ditto.
- AK = under-achiever to-date
- Glover won in Charlotte and did nothing else
- Frig’s team won a ridiculously low $3MM in the 4 majors combined.
- At least David Toms was a great pick in the 8th round.
- But when that’s the sole compliment of your year, it couldn’t have been good.


Overall Summary on picks: Dreadful. Except Brian!


Oh yea…and I had Rory and Bubba as Worst Picks of the Year.

Um. I had Cink and Allenby as Best Pick selections too.

Um….I didn’t pick any of the majors correctly…or who would get their first one.

Why do I do this?


BUT…………………..

I AM NOT AFRAID!!!!!

2012 SAFGL Predictions

Worst Pick:
Martin Kaymer #20 (Brian)
· This pick really all depends on if Kaymer can win a tournament or finish high in a major. I say he won’t do it. It’s as simple as that when you draft foreigners with only 10 events. Plus, with the FedEx Cup Playoff winners getting $1.4MM and Kaymer not playing in them, it’s simply hard to make these reaches pay off. Greg did it with Westwood a couple years back and Steve did OK with Rory last year but it’s asking a lot.

Honorable Mention: #23 – Graeme McDowell (Tim)
· Even I have no idea what my strategy is on this pick except I really like the guy. That may not be a good enough reason though if I want to triple-repeat. I need a bounce back year in the biggest way. If I get it, I may just retire!

Honorable Mention: #25 – Ian Poulter (Stilts) – Some guys never learn. Also see above.

Best Pick:
Bill Haas #12 (Brendan)
· Sure. Haas won the FedEx Cup but that doesn’t mean he’s peaked. After looking over the picks, Brendan is saying Haas is ready to carry the load. I agree.

Honorable Mention: #19 – Jim Furyk (Frig)
· While driving on the dark highways of Texas, Frig remembered that Furyk HAS TO get it back in 2012. Top 20 seems reasonable to me.


Most Likely to Win Their 1st Tour Event:
Rickie Fowler – Not really going out on a limb here but he IS the most likely to win his 1st event. (Note: I did not change any text from last year’s prediction)

Honorable Mention: Steve Marino – Now that I passed on him at #42, I’m sure Greg will take advantage at pick #48. He is SO DUE. (Note: This is not the same text from last year’s prediction, which unfortunately was Michael Sim)

Most Likely to Win Their 1st Major:
Luke Donald – While every other golf writer in America is saying the same, the fact remains the category does say “Most Likely”. The venues match his game, he has a great short game and his confidence has to be higher than ever.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Mahan– Although there are lots of options here, Hunter should be coming into his own and there is just too much baggage for other obvious picks like Westwood and Dustin Johnson.


LEAGUE PREDICTIONS:

8TH PLACE: This pick is so obvious, even a Cave Man could do it. It’s your newest league member, DAVE “STILTS/ROOKIE” MORNHINWEG.

· I will say that Scott/Simpson as his 1-2 punch is fine, but it all went downhill once Stilts had to actually think. Aaron Baddeley at #24? Poulter at #25? At these picks, you need something close to a sure thing, not guys who have never had multiple years of consistency and could just as easily finish outside the top 80. I just don’t see a lot of wins for this team…or any high finishes in majors, Scott withstanding. His bottom guys aren’t necessarily horrendous picks, but as a whole, I don’t see it. Stilts – I picked Steve to finish last in 2011 and he came in 2nd…so don’t give up yet. There is only upside!

7TH PLACE: I simply can’t pick someone high who did his draft in a car (although I did some great things in a car in college. HEY HO!). Please welcome MIKE “DON’T CALL ME COWBOY JUST BECAUSE I LIVE IN TEXAS” FRIGULETTO.


· Is Phil worthy of the #3 pick these days? Is Bubba Watson worthy of the #14 pick? Can Furyk bounce back? You could argue in any direction on Frig’s picks here. They aren’t too bad but let’s look at the remainder of his squad. Zach Johnson-Jason Dufner-Spencer Levin-Padraig Harrington-Ben Crane-Jeff Overton-Justin Leonard. No. No. No. I love Paddy but I don’t trust him that much anymore. Justin Leonard is “junk”. Ben Crane is too inconsistent and I don’t know what to make of Spencer Levin at this point, but I wasn’t drafting him. Frig – my one year experiment picking you ahead of me was a disaster. Get back in your rightful place!

6TH PLACE: No one is happier with this selection than the selectee himself and that man is none other than BRIAN “THE SUN IS SETTING BUT NOW I CAN SEE THE MOON-BAE” SMITH.

· Now, I don’t even know if I spelled this guy’s name right and nor do I care but are you kidding me? Brian drafts a guy no one has ever heard of but somehow is ranked in the top 35 or so. Really? How is that even possible? How is Ian Poulter ranked in the top 20? Brian’s team has a lot of international flair and that always spells low # of starts. In fact, Brian’s team has nary an American on it so on principle, I have to select him low. Don’t get me wrong, I love Jason Day and Brian could cash, but I just don’t trust Sergio, Karlsson (except while walking in Memphis), Villegas or Els. Did he really draft Sung Moon Bae???!!!

5TH PLACE: Wishing I wasn’t really picking myself here but hoping for the best, it’s TIM “DID I REALLY PICK GRAEME MCDOWELL AT #23” OWENS


· Hey, I do have 4 repeat guys on my winning team from 2011, but none of them are named Donald. I do have many of my picks in the big events, but I don’t have a lot of experience in actually winning them. Bo Van Pelt played solid last year and won overseas in the silly season but I need him to take it up another level if I am to make some noise this year. My lineup simply doesn’t cause fear in any of you. I should avoid a miserable season since I have stalwarts Kuchar and Watney. I could use a couple of unexpected wins from someone like Cink or Hoffman. Would you count on that? Me neither.


4TH PLACE: Picking him higher than usual given historical performance, it’s PETE “I HAVEN’T CASHED IN THIS CENTURY” BACAS.

· Yes. That’s right. Pete has not cashed since he partied in 1999. That is a miserable performance that causes one to wonder if he might pull an Ardizone next year. Nah. He’s tougher than that….maybe. Anyway, I would have picked Donald at #2, but Dustin Johnson is nothing to sneeze at, although I would LOVE to take him on in Jeopardy. Dumber than a box of rocks? Possibly. Rickie Fowler didn’t live up to his 2nd round pick status in 2011 but this was at least a late 2nd round pick and he should be even better this year. Keegan Bradley was Pete’s next look and Pete believes. I do to although asking for another major in this day and age is a ridiculous ask. I think where Pete sold me was in the middle rounds: Byrd, Toms, Glover, and O’Hair. The Mr. Consistent Award could never be won by 3 of these guys, but there is potential in that foursome and someone should win, maybe two of them. Stallings, Palmer and Adams round out his bottom 3. Only 1 of them will remain by year’s end.

3rd PLACE: Trying to claw his way back to the top of this league after two years of mediocrity it’s GREG “I STILL USE PINGS FROM THE 1990s” SMITH.


· After 3 rounds (McIlroy-Choi-Mahan), I had Greg making a triumphant return to the top. But then things got interesting. Sabbatini, Kim, Marino have potential but are they even in any majors this year? Then it’s Vegas, Holmes, Goosen, and Clark. Yikes. Again, the potential - but I could easily see these guys grinding away making cuts, preventing Greg from dropping them but getting no high finishes. However, I like Mahan to perhaps win a major this year and you can’t argue with the potential of Rory. By the way, Greg has 2 Rory’s on his team, perhaps a first. He also has a KJ, AK and JB too. Somehow, this alphabet soup will help Greg be in the mix all year and definitely cash somewhere.

2nd PLACE: Introducing my brother from the same mother it’s STEVE “LOOKING FOR 10 IN A ROW” OWENS.

· True statement. Steve has cashed every year since 2002 and looking to round it off with 10 years in a row and I say “Yes”. To continue his run, Steve drafted the major potential of newly minted Tour member, Lee Westwood as his 1st round pick at #6. I truly believe Westwood’s chipping will continue to do him in down the stretches, along with the ever-growing realization that he’s losing the battle of time against the young guns. Steve added Stricker at #11, which is a steal based on past performance, and then got up-and-comer Gary Woodland just before me (“NEWMAN!”) at #22. I also like Steve’s team depth with Ogilvy, Yang, Steele, Na (finally a winner) and Stanley. Everyone thinks Harris English is the guy to watch from the Nationwide Tour and then Louie, Louis is still in all the big events to help Steve out if he can catch the magic again. Simply put, it’s hard to argue with Steve’s league performance over the last decade. Mark it down – 10 in a row.

1st PLACE: The proverbial kiss of death selection goes to BRENDAN “LET ME TAKE A 1/2 SWING AT….WHOA I HAVE TO SWING FOR THE FENCES!!” FISH.


· Brendan is now a factor in this league and no longer the butt of my jokes. Listen – Luke Donald falling to Brendan at #5 is a GIFT of monstrous proportions. He followed it up with my pick for Best Pick, Bill Haas. Then Masters champ Schwartzel in the 3rd round, who can win anywhere, and then talented and multi-winner Snedeker. Now, Snedeker is coming off some repairs and Casey just messed up his knee (but I wasn’t counting on much from him anyway), but Brendan solidified his line-up in Round 6 with Top 20 machine CH3, a resurgent VJ at pick #53 and then got Molder, Reavie and Points at the bottom; not sexy names, but decent guys to round out a team. Not only that, but Brendan also started making waves on the Waiver Wire last year (picking up Bradley prior to the PGA win). Brendan’s #1 concern has to be injuries to Snedeker, Casey and VJ. Even Reavie was hurt a couple years back. Still, welcome to relevance Brendan. Now please mess it up!



2011 MASTERS FIELD OVERVIEW

• Robert Allenby – Never contended in a major and hasn’t won since 2001. What else do you need to know?


• Stuart Appleby – Shot 59 to get in this field on a pitch & putt track. Had the 54-hole lead a few years back, but has had middling results this year to-date. Pass.


• # Arjun Atwal – See that # sign before his name? That means 1st timer. That means no way he’s winning this week.


• Aaron Baddeley – Playing well, great putter. Could be a decent dark horse pick. I see top 30 and one round in 60’s.


• Ricky Barnes – Career year in 2010; fighting back issues in 2011. Too rusty to be considered a serious threat. MC.


• Jason Bohn – Rode hot streak in 2010 to win and post a career year. 2011 has been a bust to-date. MC.


• Jonathan Byrd – 4 W’s but disappears for long stretches at a time. Never been in the mix in a major. MC.


• Angel Cabrera – Apparently, has been in a lot of pain from dental issues all year. No form in 2011, but that’s not saying anything when talking about El Pato. Still, I don’t think this is the week. MC.


• Paul Casey – Has contended here in the past but never played well on Sunday. At this point, reminds me of Charles Howell III, lots of promise, but not too many wins. Not sure what is going on this year. Pass.


• Alex Cejka – Was surprised to see the German in the field. Has never won on the Tour. Sometimes posts decent scores to start a tournament but ultimately fades. He’ll play the weekend.


• K.J. Choi – Playing decent in 2011 and has been in the mix somewhat here. He is one of my top 5 picks.


• #* David Chung – No idea what he did to get in here but is a rookie and amateur. See ya.


• Stewart Cink – Has backed up his British Open win with…wait a minute, he hasn’t done anything since his major win. I read he switched instructors so he is still working on things. Should make the cut and that’s all.


• Tim Clark – “Gritty” Tim hasn’t played since January. That isn’t exactly “peaking” for the majors. MC.


• Fred Couples – Back is not good, but should gut out the weekend. Cannot win due to senior nerves on the greens.


• Ben Crane – Takes advantage of his good weeks each year, but is never consistent from week-to-week. Meh.


• Ben Crenshaw – I thought Gentle Ben was a renowed course designer now? Grab your clubs with headcovers Ben.


• # Jason Day – 1st timer, not following up break-out year. Not patient enough. MC.


• Luke Donald – Not a long ball hitter and certainly not straight off the tee, but great iron player and World Class short game. I see a top 10 this year and maybe even more. Still, hasn’t won a stroke play event since 2006.


• Ernie Els – Poor Ernie. Played the Sunday round of his life in ’04 but Phil bested him. Has had horrible starts since and has had to make up too much ground. Hasn’t played well in 2011 but maybe low expectations will help? No.


• Ross Fisher – Was in the mix at the British Open the year Watson won, I mean, Watson almost won, but hasn’t been up to form in 2011. There is always one European player that surprises each year. Top 20.


• # Rickie Fowler – Rookie and currently the most overrated player on Tour other than McIlroy. Pass.


• # Hiroyuki Fujita – Who’s this guy? MC.


• Jim Furyk – Last year’s FedEx Cup Champion is playing like the DHL Cup Champion (DHL left the U.S. market during the Great Recession in case you didn’t catch that). Has never been a factor at Augusta and won’t be this year.


• Sergio Garcia – [Sigh]. Sergio, Sergio whereartthoufor Sergio? A mental midget and on the comeback trail but even if his ball-streaking is back, there is still the issue of putting and Sunday pressure. No way, no how.


• Lucas Glover – Similar to Cink, hasn’t backed up his major win with anything notable except some top 10’s. MC.


• Retief Goosen – I thought Retief was on the comeback trail with a ton of top 10’s last year, but hasn’t really elevated his game any further. Always seems to perform well here but form is so off I can’t buy into it.


• Bill Haas – Has slowed down somewhat since his early season West Coast success. Not enough reps here yet to be considered for winning, but has the game to factor someday. Thought about it though.


• Anders Hansen – Surprised at WGC event earlier but traditionally, Euros only have one good event over here per year so I’m saying MC.


• # Peter Hanson – Has played well in some U.S. events, but see that # sign? Bodes poorly for anything but cut.


• Padraig Harrington – Showing signs after changing 15 different things (again) in his swing during the off-season. Weakness still seems to be off the tee but Augusta is more forgiving there. I like Paddy to top 15.


• # Gregory Havret – Future trivia question answer as in: “Who came in 2nd at Pebble Beach the year Graeme McDowell won?” MC.


• # Charley Hoffman – Of all the 1st timers on the board, I like Hoffman’s chances the best for some reason. Throws a LOT of big numbers on his card due to wild drives and can maybe get away with a couple more here…but this may be just wishful thinking on my part.


• Yuta Ikeda – Has played a few PGA events this year with no success. How is this guy top 50 in the world? MC.


• Trevor Immelman – Former champ is finally healthy and putting some results on the board. Read one golf magazine’s opinion that he won one of the most dull Masters ever, shooting 75 on a windy Sunday. Weekend.


• Ryo Ishikawa – Not yet. Too much on his mind and hasn’t really played well anyway.


• #* Jin Jeong – Every hole he plays the patrons will ask each other “What did he do to get here?”


• Miguel Angel Jimenez – OK. This has nothing to do with the Masters, but I always chuckle when folks talk about how MAJ “enjoys life to the fullest” with his wines and cigars. Um. NO SH%T!. If all I had to do was travel the world to play golf and make millions I would be loving life too. Ridiculous. Oh, his chances? None.


• Dustin Johnson – First off, Dustin, please read the local rules sheet. Secondly, are you putting well enough to contend this year? Maybe not, but this guy is a prime-time player. Top 10 on talent alone. Future winner.


• Zach Johnson – The Charles Coody champ of his generation, Zach has lost his game this year. I think he will still make the cut on course knowledge and strategy alone.


• Robert Karlsson – Swedish giant had a good run going in ‘09 until he injured his eye; hasn’t done much since. MC.


• Martin Kaymer – I think this is an important week for the young #1 player. He will show up too. Top 10.


• Jerry Kelly – Just happy to be back on hallowed grounds. Not straight enough and not long enough.


• Anthony Kim – Has the course record for most birdies in 1 round and went low for at least one round in Houston. Time to step up AK and make me look good ‘cause I see you in the mix!


• # Kyung-Tae Kim- Too many Kims to consider.


• #* Lion Kim – Another one?


• Matt Kuchar – Top 10 machine and has had success here as an amateur years ago. Great putter, but not long. Too chic a top 10 pick for my liking this week, but would be a popular winner.


• # Martin Laird – This guy is starting to look like a real solid player, but a rookie here. Should be the best finisher of the rookies after Hoffman.


• Davis Love III – Made the field due to high finish at Open at Pebble last year. Once was a prohibitive favorite here but that was a decade or more ago. Must be frustrated that ATM event Heritage is likely a goner after this year.


• Sandy Lyle – Past champion’s only contribution this year will be answering media questions about playing with Jack on Sunday in ’86.


• Hunter Mahan – Consistently playing decent all year on many tracks and has been in the mix at big events lately, even winning the WGC at Firestone last year. However, his chipping is still very suspect and putter is streaky. Also hasn’t finished well on Sundays since the Ryder Cup. Top 15.


• Steve Marino – Hits it high and long, but favors a fade versus the draw. He could be in the mix or MC. He’s hoping for a Monday finish if you know what I mean. Can’t pick him to top 10 yet.


• #* Hideki Matsuyama – Rookie and amateur. Enjoy the Crow’s Nest.


• Graeme McDowell – I would love for G-Mac to be in the mix, but something tells me that he will soon be coming down from his high of the past 12 months, if not already. Has the demeanor though and can handle the pressure.


• Rory McIlroy – This kid is under my skin since he talks too much and has only won twice in like 3 years now. Can shoot some ridiculously good scores and did contend at the PGA last year. However, due to limited form this year, I will stay away.


• Phil Mickelson – Your defending champ and 2011 winner. Will it finally get him to the #1 World Ranking? Maybe, Yes Sir!


• Larry Mize – 1987 winner has memories to last a life-time while Greg Norman has nightmares to last just as long.


• Edoardo Molinari – Someday, someone will sufficiently explain what that “Two Molinaris” song is that was sung at the Ryder Cup, but until then, let’s enjoy a missed cut for both.


• Francesco Molinari – See above. MC.


• Ryan Moore – Solid player but not enough reps here to be a serious threat. Playing well in 2011 = top 20.


• Kevin Na – I hope he isn’t in the mix because he is so painful (slow) to watch. Usually makes coin on West Coast weak field events so not expecting too much. Oh. And he’s never won anywhere.


• Sean O'Hair – After 2009, many expected O’Hair to step it up to the next level. Instead, he simply joins the list of many players who have had a hot stretch or year…so far. MC.


• Mark O'Meara – One of a very short list of multiple major winners in the Tiger era. Ceremonial here though.


• Geoff Ogilvy – It’s a mystery why this guy has played so poorly the last couple of years. High ball hitter and good putter who should do well here but no form thus far in 2011.


• Jose Maria Olazabal – Perhaps one of the most talented players in the last 20 years to be debilitated to such an extent by injuries. It’s really sad actually.


• Louis Oosthuizen – At least folks can say his name now, right? Not enough reps at Augusta yet to factor.


• # Jeff Overton – Rookie should win some crystal for an eagle somewhere, but has been struggling in 2011.


• Ryan Palmer – Shows up once or twice a year on Tour for a high finish or win. Not this week.


• Carl Pettersson – No one has ever won at the Masters with a broomstick putter. ‘Nuff said.


• # D.A. Points – Won earlier at Pebble when he experienced a lifetime of career shots in about 20 minutes. Bill Murray isn’t here to help him this week though.


• Ian Poulter – Apparently in his pre-tournament press conference, he doubted his ability to finish top 5 this week. IAN - I COULDN’T AGREE WITH YOU MORE. You might be just behind Tiger in the World Rankings soon though!


• Alvaro Quiros – Spanish bomber usually has one good week a year in the U.S. I’ll gamble it’s later in the year.


• Justin Rose – Although Rose won twice in 2010, he still can’t be considered a ‘finisher’. Still, game is there and contended once previously before giving way…so a top 10 it is.


• Rory Sabbatini – Won a couple weeks back with great ball-striking and putting. Contended a few years back too. Definitely in consideration for a top 10, but I just don’t trust him.


• Charl Schwartzel – I thought Charl might be a force on the U.S. Tour this year, but hasn’t found any form to-date. Pass this week.


• Adam Scott – Remember that comment about the broomstick putter? Among many other things, no way.


• Vijay Singh – Former champ showing signs, but not a good enough putter to win this year. The year he won the greens were soft and he won with GIRs.


• Heath Slocum – “Slocum if you got ‘em”. Every time….I say this to myself… when I hear his name. Not a recipe for success though.


• * Nathan Smith – No idea.


• Brandt Snedeker – Came close a couple years back and subsequently cried during the post-tournament press conferences. Despite that, Brandt is my dark horse selection to top 10.


• Craig Stadler – I am the Walrus, Koo-Koo-Cu-Choo….just trying to break 80.


• Henrik Stenson – Finished top 3 at St. Andrews last year but really, has been terrible otherwise since his Players win in 2009. Sweden will have to wait another year for their 1st major champion.


• # Kevin Streelman – Rookie who should focus on winning the Kodak challenge. Absolutely no shot.


• Steve Stricker – Great putter. Nice guy. Has contended in a couple of majors – but I just am not feeling it.


• David Toms – Best days are behind him. Will ‘defend’ his PGA win here in Atlanta in August though.


• #* Peter Uihlein – Rookie is the son of Acushnet Titleist President. That is all.


• Bo Van Pelt – Bo don’t know this track. Hasn’t found 2010 form but didn’t get hot last year until this time either.


• # Jhonattan Vegas – How great a story would it be if this guy won or even contended? Is he hitting a wall? Rookie.


• Camilo Villegas – “Attention. This is the fairway calling Camilo. Come in Camilo.” 2011 claim to fame is alphabet soup of finishes. Yikes.


• Nick Watney – After Phil, everyone’s chic pick and who can blame them? Did he learn from last year’s Sunday melt down at Whistling Straits? Can he putt well enough to win? Impossible not to pick for top 10 based on form.


• Bubba Watson – Speaking of Whistling Straits, played great until last playoff hole there, handing the W to Kaymer. Wouldn’t totally surprise me if he contended, but wondering if all his cuts, draws, slices, etc. is too much here.


• Tom Watson – Great interview with him on The Golf Channel last night. Many fans still in pain from 2009 loss at Turnberry. Hopefully, he can make the weekend.


• Mike Weir – Will likely have to take a top 50 all-time $ winner exemption to keep his card for 2012. MC.


• Lee Westwood – Hasn’t played that great the last few months and his chipping is suspect but I like him to top 10 anyway. Best chance to win one may be at St. George’s later in the summer.


• # Mark Wilson – The unlikeliest 4-time Tour winner and a multiple winner this year. Rookie here though.


• # Gary Woodland – Rookie with serious talent. In the Laird/Hoffman sweepstakes for low 1st-timer.


• Tiger Woods – Tiger hasn’t won it since the Hootie make-over and his short game is the worst it’s ever been. The last time I wrote him off was during the 10 minutes after he posted a 40 on his 1st 9 holes here in 1997. Uh oh.


• Ian Woosnam – Wee Woosie still has nightmares about two drivers in his bag. Oh, what could have been.


• Y.E. Yang – 2009 PGA champ showing signs of a return to form, but not ready in this event. Not even low Korean.

Bay Hill 2011 Epilogue

* Martin Laird now on the list of solid, young, rising players. Ryder Cup discussion and majors discussion will ensue.

* Steve Marino remains at the top of the list of best players not to win. Even I thought Marino was going to close it out. 3-stroke lead with 4 to play. 3 holes later he was trailing by 2. Oops. This guy is a puddle on Sunday afternoons.

* Spencer Levin not ready to win, especially on a difficult track. Commish is outraged by my jinx email to him on Thursday.

* #17 at Bay Hill tricked up and laughable on Sunday with a rock-hard green and a tucked pin. Arnold, you should know better.

* There was a David Toms and Trevor Immelman sighting on the Sunday telecast. Good to see them both. Next sighting will be at the FedEx St. Jude Classic coverage.

* Sergio (aka The Bitch in these parts) secures a back door top 10. Commish calls this an "Allenby".

* Tiger apparently claiming he hit the ball well on Sunday - he shot 74 with 2 balls in the water coming in. Please stop.

* There are no favorites heading into Augusta in a mere 10 days. My pick again this year is Phil. His form really has no bearing any more on his performance at Augusta and he owns that place since the Hootie Make Over. KJ Choi has to be in consideration now too.

Post British Open Thoughts

I thought Tiger struck the ball much better than the last few events, but it was shocking to see him miss so many putts...and Sunday, he hit it in places where he never has before (bunkers, etc.). Although I would bet he would win another major eventually...with his length off the tee no longer dominant and putting just average, he will have to play great now to win versus having just his B game.

By the way, I know ESPN will like to brag about their 40+ hours of "golf coverage", but I was thoroughly disappointed. Too many guys on the announce team, too much talk and not enough showing actual golf shots. I wonder if it was because Louie Louie was way out in front, but it was disappointing.

Unreal play from Louie O. and I am sure the Golf Channel will have their talking heads like Chamblee, Hawkins and Rude analyzing all week if he is the next big thing, like Glover, McDowell, etc. But the more we start to re-look the list of major winners lately, the more I start to think it's time we took a step back. We put some much stock in winning these events, but a large portion of the list of winners in the last decade or so is quite questionable: Curtis, Micheel, McDowell, Louie, Weir, Zach Johnson, Cink, Hamilton, Immelman - none of these players has more than 8 wins on Tour or in Europe, if that many. I'm not saying majors are overrated by any means, and these guys have a chance to still add to their legacy but c'mon...even Brian Watts, Bob May and Thomas Levet almost won one (playoff losses) recently. Tiger's record speaks for itself and VJ, Paddy and Phil have won numerous other events around the world to back up their wins, but it's not like the list is a who's who of Hall of Famers lately. Is this the deeper field argument or the fact the top tier players -- or those we consider top tier players - can't get out of their own way to collect a trophy?

You know who impressed me the most this week besides the winner? Rory McIlroy. I totally thought this kid wouldn't get it done this year and quite frankly, he has been sporadic and shot basically 3 good rounds all year, but man, have they been great ones. But the way he handled his 80 Friday at age 21 was absolutely impressive. Rickie Fowler finishing T-14th after starting out with 79 was also pretty stout.

One last thing: Get ready for the onslaught of articles on the state of American golf. PANIC TIME! We didn't win one of the last 2 and this particular singular event, we didn't have anyone is the top 5! We have NO CHANCE to win the Ryder Cup the way things are going. I mean, Ian Poulter said it himself. There would be nothing better for our squad to go over there are kick some can.

U.S. Open Thoughts

What can you say about Sunday's final round? It was horrendous golf, simply put. Oh, and my DVR stopped at 9pm or some reason as Havret had put it in the bunker at 18 and McDowell was walking to the 18th tee, so at 9:45pm I had to go to ESPN News to see what had happened. Nice. For all the arguments we have had about deeper fields in the Tiger era versus the studs in Jack's era, you can't tell me that this tournament doesn't add ammo to the side that says Jack's era had better closers?

To me, Ernie Els has to feel the worst today out of all the contenders. He made bogey from 99 yards on #14, missed a 3 footer for birdie on #15 and couldn't make either mid-range putt on #17 & #18. Oh yea, he made a mess of #10 too. Ernie's putter, which had shown signs earlier this year, was once again tentative in the big pressure cooker of a major.

Phil - I'm beginning to think Phil is never going to win one of these U.S. Open thingies. Just really frustrating. Every time Phil or Ernie seemed to be back in the mix on the back nine, they would miss a key putt or hit a poor shot. It was really maddening.

Tiger - His swing does look better, but he is clearly not back. I said "Bye-Bye" on Saturday after he got to +6 and then shook my head 3 hours later as he played the final 15 holes in 7 under. Still, 15 brilliant holes does not mean Tiger is the dominate player he used to be. Sunday's effort was very pedestrian. We are still waiting for that final round major comeback.

Dustin Johnson - I was rooting for Phil or Ernie to win, and then Dustin. A couple of poor swings early really killed Dustin -- but if you look closely, his putter is what really let him down. He missed numerous putts inside of 5 feet and 3-putted #7, #18 and possibly #16. Brandel Chamblee shows why he is the best analyst in the sport right now when on Saturday night, when everyone was gushing how Dustin could blow away the field, Chamblee pointed out how Dustin Johnson had struggled mightily in final rounds this year. Remember, he even took 74 to win at the AT&T earlier to win. Sickening to think that a 76 would have won it for Dustin.

Greg Havret - Thank goodness this guy didn't win it. A great performance and 2nd place will do wonders for his career and getting into future big events, but him winning would have been a travesty and Micheel-like.

McDowell - Will McDowell pull an Immelman and disappear from the stage after winning a major...or a be a force in the game for years to come? Admittedly, Immelman has struggled with injuries and McDowell could simply be on a hot streak, but I have been wrong before. I thought Immelman was going to be force. It hasn't happened.

Next up in the majors is the home of golf, St. Andrews. I have to tell you, I am not excited about this venue. Maybe it's because the last 2 times Tiger has won handily, but I just don't get that excited for this course. Carnoustie has produced the most exciting Opens to me over the last 15 years. Tiger is my pick again. Ernie will tease but ultimately get his heart ripped out by Tiger in yet another major.